The penultimate week of Euro 2016 group qualifying begins on Thursday, and 17 different countries could clinch a spot in France by Tuesday. The qualifying campaign has been rife with upsets, resulting in only two of the nine seeded teams currently being on top of their groups.
With the forgiving nature of qualifying, not all of the seeds are in danger of being eliminated. Each group's top two teams qualify automatically for Euro 2016. The best team of the nine third-place clubs also gets a direct berth, and the other eight third-place teams enter playoffs for the final four spots.
But as it stands, ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) forecasts three seeded teams to finish outside the top two when the group stage concludes in October. Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining games, here's how SPI sees the groups playing out, with a focus on how the top seeds are performing. (For more information on SPI, see Nate Silver's explainers here, here and here.)