Football
Colin Udoh, Special to ESPN 6y

Nigeria's World Cup survival depends on a tactical switch

The saying goes: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. But in the case of Nigeria, who lost their World Cup opener to Croatia, it is broke and a fix is imperative before they face Iceland on Friday.

Since qualifying for the World Cup last November, coach Gernot Rohr's Super Eagles have played friendlies against Argentina, Poland, Congo, Serbia, England and Czech Republic. They won two, drew one, and lost three.

In the course of those friendlies, they played blinding football in the second half of almost every one of those games. Against Argentina they stormed back to win 4-2, beat Poland in a 1-0 scrap, and then proceeded to give both Serbia and England a scare in the second period. England in particular were left hanging on by the thinnest of threads.

The common theme of those second half performances was that Rohr switched from a four-man defensive line to three at the back. This not only flooded the midfield with bodies but also put an additional body upfront.

Playing four back is not entirely a bad thing. The trouble is in isolating Odion Ighalo upfront. While he does have the skillset to be a bruising centre forward, he is way more effective when he has a foil to play off of. It has always been clear that he thrives when playing in a front pairing, not as a lone ranger up top.

Captain John Mikel Obi, whose responsibility it is to play behind Ighalo, is still essentially a midfielder and carries a lot of responsibility on his shoulders to lead the team. This means that he is always looking to plug holes left open by other players, make himself available to receive passes from deep, and dictate the play.

The trade down here is that Ighalo ends up isolated and unable to influence the game much, which is exactly what happened against Croatia, whose centre backs were quite happy to double team him without any threat of second striker.

Nigeria's 2-0 loss was not just the product of a listless display, it was also one where the formation just did not work. Certainly not with the personnel out on the pitch on the night.

As a result, it appears the players had the energy sucked out of them. Asked about it at the post match press conference, Rohr said: "This was not a question of tactics or system. Our system was okay.

"We played with four because there were three strikers and the Croatia strikers are very strong. We did not concede from open play, we only conceded from set pieces. So the organisation was okay."

True. But it is one thing to be organised, it is another to create chances and threaten the opposition. Croatia never looked like they were ever in trouble and to the discerning eye, it seemed only a matter of time before the Europeans scored, which they duly did. Twice.

Against Iceland, this needs to change. Rohr needs to start with a three-back. To break the defensively robust Vikings down, a lone striker will not work.

Mikel, Wilfred Ndidi and Oghenekaro Etebo looked good in Kaliningrad. Wingbacks can stretch the play, and with support from either Alex Iwobi or Ahmed Musa, one of Ighalo or Kelechi Iheanacho can cause plenty of damage.

Ighalo is big and strong enough to win set pieces or even a penalty in the box. Iheanacho has the skill to do the same. And if Rohr were to go with Musa, something he tried in an earlier friendly, that would inject pace into the frontline.

This provides a more energetic and menacing option, with bodies all over the park, compared to the current 4-2-3-1 formation.

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